Contributor and Victim - Indonesia's Role in Global Climate Change with Special Reference to Kalimantan

Through rapid deforestation, forest fires, degrading peatlands, and diminishing carbon ‘sinks' Indonesia is one of the main contributors to the phenomenon of Global Climate Change. On the other hand, Indonesia will also be a major victim of Climate Change. The combination of high population density on some islands and high levels of biodiversity, together with 80,000 kilometres of coastline and 17,500 islands, makes Indonesia one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of Climate Change. Experts expect a warming from 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade in Indonesia during this century, together with an increase in annual precipitation across the majority of the Indonesian islands. Additionally there will be a change in the seasonality of precipitation; Borneo may become 10 to 30% wetter by the 2080's during December-February. As rainfall decreases during critical times of the year this translates into higher drought risk, consequently a decrease in crop yields, economic instability and drastically more undernourished people. On the other hand, increased rainfall during already wet times of the year will lead to high flood risk. Rising sea levels and many more extreme weather events will contribute to the many problems caused by Global Climate Change. Indonesia, and Kalimantan in the first instance, has to take up the challenge of climate change in taking actions at all levels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including promoting sustainable use of land and water resources, and putting adaptation into the development agenda.


Introduction
In 2004, the industrialised countries ("Annex I countries") had 20% of the world's population, but accounted for 46% of global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and the 80% population in the Developing World ("Non-Annex I countries") emitted only 54% of the global GHG.
Global energy use and supply -the main drivers of GHG emissions -are projected to continue to grow, especially as Developing Countries pursue industrialization. Under 'business as usual' conditions, the projected emissions of energy-related CO2 in 2030 will be 40-110% higher than in 2000, with two thirds to three quarters of this increase originating in the Developing World (Non-Annex I countries), though annual per capita emissions in industrialized countries will remain substantially higher, that is 9.6 t CO2/cap to 15.1 t CO2/cap in Annex I regions versus 2.8 t CO2/cap to 5.1 tCO2/cap in Non-Annex I regions (IPCC 2007).

The World Development Report 2010 (World Bank 2009) entitled "Development and Climate
Change" emphasizes that developing countries are the most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. In fact, they face 75 to 80 percent of the potential damage from climate change. The latest and best scientific evidence tells us that at global warming of more than 2°C above preindustrial temperatures-an increase that will be extremely difficult to avoidmore than a billion people could face water scarcity, 15 to 30 percent of species worldwide could be doomed to extinction, hunger will rise, particularly in tropical countries, sea-level rise is contributing to losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves, more weather extremes than ever (incl. floods and droughts) will affect negatively the life of millions and the economy of nations (IPCC 2007).
So it's overwhelmingly clear that developing countries are the major victims of Global Climate Change and that they assistance to cope with these potential impacts.

The role of forests and peatlands in Global Climate Change
Forest ecosystems account for as much as 80% of the total above-ground terrestrial carbon while peatland ecosystems, which only cover 3% of the world's terrestrial surface, store 30% of all global soil carbon or the equivalent of 75% of all atmospheric carbon (Dioghlaf 2008). As such, healthy forests and peatland systems have the potential to capture a significant portion of projected emissions. Inversely, unsustainable land use, deforestation and soil degradation, can contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. Between 1990 and 2005, nearly 45,000 square kilometers of forest were lost in low income countries (an annual deforestation rate of 0.5 percent) and 38,000 square kilometers in lower middle income countries (including Indonesia, annual deforestation rate: While most emissions in industrialized countries result from fossil fuel combustion, the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the Developing World are deforestation and land use change. On average, land use change, forestry, and agriculture account for more than half of the emissions of greenhouse gases in Developing Countries, compared to 10 percent in industrialized countries (World Bank 2009a).

Indonesias contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
Indonesia releases about 3000 million t CO 2 e annually, which is about half the US emission volume ( Fig. 1). Deforestation, rapid degradation of peatlands and forest fires together account for 85 per cent of the country's annual greenhouse gas emissions (Fig. 2). These emissions make up 34% of the global emissions caused by land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) (PEACE 2007).
Indonesia is host to very large forest areas. About 24 billion tons of carbon are stored in vegetation and soil, and 80% of this, i.e. around 19 Bt C, are stored in standing forest (status 2003). Out of the 108 million ha of forest area (in 2005) of Indonesia almost half is in poor and degraded condition.
The forest area in Indonesia has decreased in 10 years (1995 to 2005) from 50.2 % to 48.8% of the total land area (World Bank 2008). Forest fires count for 57% of total deforestation and land conversion. In Indonesia these fires may cover millions of hectares and can last for weeks, sometimes even months, often burning thick layers of peat over large areas. Indonesia holds about 60% of the world's peatlands (about 20 million hectares) and these peatlands are a rich potential source of carbon dioxide (Vasander et al. 2007 its carbon content was estimated to amount to 6.3 million tons (WI-IP, 2004).
Ongoing disturbances like land conversion and logging decrease the peat coverage (CKPP 2006).
The large-scale use of peatlands is associated to drainage. Through drainage, the peat dries, starts decomposing, and emitting carbon dioxide. In the tropics this process takes place very rapidly and is often accelerated by fires , Prinz 2008. Fires from peatlands are the largest contributor to haze, which is a major source of carbon emission.
In the 1997/1998, peatland has contributed 60% to 90% of emissions from forest fires. It was estimated that the fires released 7% of the total global greenhouse gas emission that year and affected the health of 75 million people (BAPPENAS-ADB 1999).
Deforestation and land-use change are estimated to cover 2 million hectares per year (Fig. 3).
Studies estimate that illegal logging comprises about two thirds of the country's total CO 2 emissions, or between 140 and 250 MtC annually (PEACE 2007).
These developments have major impacts on the global carbon cycle, on local and global climate regulation, on biodiversity, soil, water, and coastal marine productivity. Indonesia is also a serious crude oil, natural gas and coal producer and user in the region.

Indonesia as a victim of Global Climate Change
On the other hand, Indonesia will also be a major victim of Global Climate Change. The combination of high population density on some islands and high levels of biodiversity, together with 80,000 kilometres of coastline and 17,500 islands, makes Indonesia one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of Climate Change. Here are some of the issues Indonesia is confronted with or has to cope with in future:

Temperature
Experts expect a warming of about 0.3°C per decade in Indonesia during this century. This modest increase will nevertheless result in (1) changes in the hydrological cycle, i.e. it will alter evaporation, transpiration, run-off, soil moisture, and in turn, precipitation, (2) a higher water demand by vegetation, crops, animals and human beings, (3) higher losses of water to atmosphere by evaporation from reservoirs, (4) higher electricity needs for cooling, ventilation etc., (5) more stress to all living beings and the out-migration or extinction of species, (6) more problems with pests and diseases, including malaria, Dengue fever etc., (7) ocean warming, affecting fishery as well as marine biodiversity, (8) sea level rise (thermal expansion of the ocean's water body in combination with melting of glaciers and polar ice caps).

Precipitation, Droughts and Floods
The models predict an increase in rainfall across the Indonesian islands, with the largest change being in the Moluccas. Borneo may become 10 to 30% wetter by the 2080's. Increased rainfall during already wet times of the year will lead to higher flood risk (Hulme and Sheard 1999).
There will be a change in the seasonality of precipitation: Most probably the rains will come later, the rain intensity will be higher once the monsoon begins and then it will be drier during the summer months. This means a much shorter rainy season, with an almost rainless dry season in some areas. As rainfall decreases during critical times of the year this translates into higher drought risk, consequently a decrease in crop yields, economic instability and drastically more undernourished people.
In Jakarta area higher rain intensities might be expected during monsoon season. Jakarta has already a much higher risk of flood disasters because more than 40 percent of the city is situated below sea level. Another source of flood hazard is due to the 13 rivers that pass through the area. Different low-lying parts of the city experience flooding on an annual basis resulting in disruption of local economic and social activities. The flooding is due to the accumulation of rainwater as well as to incursion of seawater.
Jakarta area ('Jabotabek') is growing very rapidly. Several parts of the coastal plains are experiencing subsidence of around two to three centimeters every year. (World Bank 2009b).

Rain Intensities
Heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense in future due to the increased moisture available for condensation, which again is caused by higher temperatures (University of Miami 2008). More intense rain events increase the risk of soil erosion, sedimentation of river beds and reservoirs, of flooding and can have substantial societal and economic impacts.
Scientists expect for the humid tropics that precipitation in extreme events will go up by about 6 percent for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature (MIT 2009).

Groundwater Recharge
Increased precipitation variability/intensity may decrease groundwater recharge in humid areas because more frequent heavy precipitation events may result in the infiltration capacity of the soil being exceeded more often (Bates et al. 2008).

Impact on Agriculture and Food Security
The anticipated changes in the hydrologic cycle together with reduced soil fertility and higher incidence of pests and diseases will affect negatively the agricultural production. Climate change will likely reduce soil fertility by 2 to 8 percent, resulting in projected decreases of rice yield. There is a very high risk of decreased food security as well as reduced income from non-food commodities (coffee, cacao, tea, rubber etc.) in future decades.

Sea Level Rise
The climate change induced changes of the ocean make Indonesia particularly vulnerable: Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago; its 17,500 islands stretch over 5000 thousand kilometres East to West, or an eighth of the world's circumference; its total sea area is four times bigger than the land area.
It is projected, that the mean sea level in Indonesia will increase as high as 0.9 cm per year during this century, vast stretches of coastal plains will be inundated by the end of the century, the country could lose 2000 islands by 2030, the capital Jakarta will suffer most from sea level rise as large parts of Jakarta bay are also sinking by 0.8 cm per year due to groundwater over-pumping aquaculture of fish and prawns in coastal areas will be affected (PEACE 2007).
For instance, in West Java province's Karawang region, a huge reduction in local rice supply is estimated as a result of inundation and loss in fish and prawn production could go over 7,000 tons.
In the lower Citarum Basin it was calculated that, sea-level rise could result in the inundation of about 26,000 ha of aquaculture ponds and 10,000 ha of crop land. This could result in the loss of 15,000 tons of fish, shrimps and prawns output, and about 940,000 tons of rice production (PEACE 2007). As a consequence, thousands of labourers might loose their jobs and many farmers will have to look for other sources of income.

Marine Environment
Due to climate change Indonesia's ocean water will become warmer by 0.2 to 2.5 0 C during this century and will be more acid. Together with land-based water pollution, destruction of mangrove forests along the coast and over-fishing, the marine environment does suffer significantly. More than 50% of the coral reefs around Java and Bali were found bleached (PEACE 2007, WOC 2009).
There are a number of direct and indirect implications of climate change for fisheries in Indonesia.

Vulnerability Mapping
A survey on the vulnerability of the various regions of SE Asia to the impacts of Global Climate Change (Fig. 4), revealed, that the districts of Jakarta come out as the top most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (Yusuf and Francisco 2009). This is because this district is the intersection of all the climate-related hazards, except tropical cyclones. It is frequently exposed to regular flooding but most importantly, it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated regions in Southeast Asia. Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple hazards (namely, floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities. This

Mitigation and Adaptation
The impacst of Climate Change such as more extreme weather events and rising sea levels, will aggravate the many problems which already exist in the country. To avoid a further deterioration of conditions, Indonesia, and Kalimantan in the first instance, has to take up the challenge of climate change in taking actions at all levels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including promoting sustainable use of land and water resources, and putting adaptation into the development agenda (Mani et al. 2008). There are many binational and international programmes offering support to national governments.
UNEP e.g. is offering assistance through the Regional Seas Programme and the Global Plan of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based Activities (WOC 2009).
In regard to adaptation a wide range of fields have to be covered, such as Avoiding a further sinking of Jakarta area by lowering water abstraction and promoting groundwater recharge, Introducing a soil conservation strategy to avoid land slides, soil erosion from agricultural lands and sedimentation of rivers and reservoirs, Implementing a water conservation strategy in agriculture, i.e. to produce the same crop yield with smaller quantities of water, Storing more water above or below ground, Promoting water harvesting, i.e. to collect rainwater from house roofs for use in the dry period, Changing agricultural crops to fit to the new conditions, Constructing more dykes along the coast against sea level rise etc.
But conventional interventions might be not sufficient. Adapting to climate change both needs to build on conventional interventions and requires a major shift in thinking in planning and designing cities, in managing land, water and energy resources and in protecting the environment (incl. biodiversity).
It needs the development of flexible or "smart" systems that can anticipate and react to changing circumstances, particularly in light of uncertainties in projected impacts. New design standards and criteria will also need to be developed for a changed environment, including the hydrologic system.
Adaptive capacity-both social and physical-will need to be enhanced to protect the poorest and most vulnerable populations and ecosystems from the impacts of climate change.
According to OXFAM in six years time the number of people affected by climatic crises is projected to rise by 54 per cent to 375 million people, threatening to overwhelm the humanitarian aid system. The projected rise is due to a combination of entrenched poverty and people migrating to densely populated slums which are prone to the increasing number of climatic events. This is compounded by the political failure to address these risks and a humanitarian system which is not fit for purpose (OXFAM 2009).
The Indonesian government and all sectors of the society have to take into account the issue of climate change and have to translate it into policy making and in daily life decisions.

Climate change developments in Indonesia
Indonesia has signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 and ratified it in 2004. Since then, a lot has happened, notably in the field of clean development mechanism (CDM), although less so in the other fields (PEACE 2007). According to international experts, forestry policies in Indonesia are good, but implementation and enforcement are weak (PEACE 2007). Additionally there are conflicting targets, e.g. between replacing fossil fuels such as diesel, by biofuels on one hand and protecting forest area on the other hand: Historically, oil-palm production in Indonesia has been a major driver of deforestation. As the national and international demand for biofuels is steadily rising, and the oil from oil-palms is well suitable for this purpose, more and more plantations are established. The Indonesian policy to rapidly expand the use of coal, including the expansion of coal-fired power generation, will increase emissions further.
On the other hand, renewable energy sources are underdeveloped and only few incentives given.
According to PEACE (2007), the development of renewable energy in Indonesia has slowed if not halted.
In August 2008 the National Council on Climate Change (DNPI) was established; its functions are to coordinate climate change policy, negotiations, and implementation across all levels and portfolios of government in Indonesia's decentralized system (Ashton 2009 In partnership with other countries and NGOs, Indonesia is building systems to collect and analyze satellite and ground data, and undertaking large-scale demonstration activities. It is working with Australia to develop a national Forest Resource Information System and National Carbon Accounting System.

Conclusions
There are no doubts that global warming will increase temperatures, shorten the rainy season and intensify rainfall all over Indonesia, with minor differences between groups of islands. These conditions will lead to other changes e.g. in water demand, reduced groundwater recharge, more soil erosion etc, which have effects on agriculture and thus food security. A simulation has projected a significant decrease in crop harvest in West and East Java due to climate change.
Global warming will also make sea levels rise, inundating productive coastal zones and reducing farming in such communities. If such predictions come true, thousands of farmers in that area alone would have to look for other sources of income.
The rise in the number of dengue fever cases during the rainy seasons in Indonesia, especially in Java, could have been partially caused by warmer temperatures. Research has confirmed that warmer temperature has led to mutation of the dengue virus, making it difficult to handle, leading to an increase in fatalities.
It is now evident, that deforestation, peat land degradation and forest fires have placed Indonesia among the top emitters of greenhouse gases in the world, among industrial giants United States, China and Japan. About 75 percent of the largest carbon dioxide emissions in the Indonesian forestry sector come from deforestation and land conversion which are caused mainly by forest fire.
Global warming will likely cause a vicious cycle by drying up the rainforest and peat swamps, thus increasing the risks of even more intense fires.
All these facts call for immediate action. But experts argue that forest sustainability programs are challenged by the local reality that the forests are worth more dead than alive. Timber and palm oil profits are much greater and easier to grasp than vague notions of sustainability.
Professor Emil Salim, the father of Indonesia's environmental movement and a senior adviser to Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said in an interview, that with Indonesia's current population of 230 million expected to grow by another 100 million in the next 30 years, Indonesia needs very good reasons not to clear land. And local people, he said, need good economic reasons to keep the forests standing. (ABC 2007) Ironically demand for energy crops from rich countries may now be worsening the situation, with hundreds of thousands of hectares of forest in Southeast Asia being converting annually for biofuels production.
In a recent World Bank paper (World Bank 2009b) it was proclaimed "Lets act now, act together, and act differently. Act now, because what we do today shapes the climate of tomorrow and the options available to future generations. The cost of delay or inaction is too high. Act together, with rich countries taking the lead to reduce their carbon footprints and to help developing countries with the funding and technology they need both for adaptation to climate change as well as for lowcarbon growth in future. Act differently, by transforming energy systems, managing land and water sustainably, protecting forests and biodiversity, and designing policies that take into account new information about climate change" (World Bank 2009b).
In order for a post-Kyoto climate change agreement to work, industrialized and developing nations should work together to avoid deforestation and create the necessary financial mechanisms to transfer resources to countries that effectively protect their natural resources.